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Kim

tastytrade review (Tom Sosnoff)

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There is a lot of buz lately related to tastytrade, Tom Sosnoff, Karen Supertrader etc. so I thought it would be appropriate to open a discussion topic where members can discuss tastytrade and exchange ideas and opinions.

 

Here are some links to articles and posts about tastytrade.

Karen Supertrader: Myth Or Reality?
Karen Supertrader: Too Good To Be True?
Karen The Supertrader Interviewed by tastytrade
Why 'Karen the Supertrader's' Story Never Made Sense
Tastytrade: A Shill with Skills
Can We Profit From Volatility Expansion Into Earnings?
Buying Premium Prior To Earnings - Does It Work?
Another garbage study from Tasty Trade
Reviews of TastyTrade.com at Investimonials
 

While the shows can be entertaining, here is one opinion that summarizes what tastytrade do:

Quote

 

All of tastytrade promotions and shows are designed to sell investors on the idea that they can become elite traders. It is a powerful message, financial empowerment by building know-how, that has attracted a large and loyal audience. However, when you dig below the surface you will find tastytrade is really just about generating millions of dollars in commissions for TD Ameritrade. Rebranding options day trading as "investing" is grossly wrong. Day trading is not investing, it never was, and it never will be. Tastytrade is just a new age financial shill with some new skills. 

 

 

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My biggest issue with tastytrade was that they push mostly only one strategy of selling naked options and define everything else as "crap". We all know that there are many good strategies, not just one.

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Quoting a trader I respect very much:

 

They (tastytrade) will discredit any strategy you name. The only thing that works is selling options based on implied volatility rank above 50%. A newbie trader will tend to adhere to this advice as the Bible, especially when heard from two market veterans of 2-3 decades and this is what I have a problem with. It discourages research, it discourages self-discovery and study on the individual rookie trader limiting their growth and potential and tying them to one system which in the end is no holy grail, just another vision for trading the markets. Where does this leave the thousands of very successful investors that have made fortunes over the years not selling Credit Spreads? Where does this leave the countless CTAs that have been able to ride monster futures' trends in the past whose returns have been properly audited and documented?

 

At SteadyOptions, we encourage open discussions about variety of strategies. Our strategies work for us, but you will never hear us saying that they are the only thing that works.

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I have no experience with tastytrade but if someone claims having the holy grail we can just go-over. I highly appreciate the diversity of the strategies we are discussing at steadyoptions. Diversity is also the core of all successful living. 

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Well, for those who watch their studies and rely on them for their trading, here is one example. The parameters of the study:

  1. Use AAPL and GMCR as underlying.
  2. Buy a ATM straddle 20 days before earnings.
  3. Sell it just before the announcement.

The results of the study, based on 48 cycles (2009-2014)

  • AAPL P/L: -$2933
  • GMCR P/L: -$2070

Based on those results, they declared (once again) that buying a straddle before earnings is a losing strategy.

 

First of all, dismissing the whole strategy based on two stocks is completely wrong. You could say that this strategy does not work for those two stocks. This would be a correct statement. Indeed, we do not use those two stocks for our straddles strategy.

 

Second, from our experience, entering 20 days before earnings is usually not the best time. On average, the ideal time to enter is around 5-10 days before earnings. This when the stocks experience the largest IV spike.

 

Third, the study does not account for gamma scalping. Which means that if the stock moves, you can adjust the strikes of the straddle or buy/sell stock against it. Many times the stock would move back and forward from the strike, allowing you to adjust several times. In addition, the study is probably based on end of day prices, and from our experience, the end of day price on the last day is usually near the day lows, and you have a chance to sell at higher prices earlier.

 

As a side note, presenting the results as dollar P/L on one contract trade is meaningless. GMCR is trading around $150 today, and pre-earnings straddle cost is around $1,500. In 2009, the stock was around $30, and pre-earnings straddle cost was around $500. Would you agree that 10% gain (or loss) on $1,500 trade is different than 10% gain (or loss) on $500 trade? The only thing that matters is percentage P/L, not dollar P/L.

 

Presenting dollar P/L could potentially severely skew the study. For example, what if most of the winners were when the stock was at $30-50 but most of the losers when the stock was around $100-150?

 

Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista conclude the "study" by saying that "if anybody tells you that you should be buying volatility into earnings, they really haven't done their homework. It really doesn't work".

 

At SteadyOptions, buying pre-earnings straddles is one of our key strategies. Check out our performance page for full results. As you can see from our results, the strategy works very well for us. We don't do studies, we do live trading, and our results are based on hundreds real trades.

 

Of course the devil is in the details. There are many moving parts to this strategy:

  • When to enter?
  • Which stocks to use?
  • How to manage the position?
  • When to take profits?

And much more.

 

So we will let tastytrade to do their "studies", and we will continue trading the strategy and make money from it. After all, as one of our members said, someone has to be on the other side of our trades. Actually, I would like to thank tastytrade for continuing providing us fresh supply of sellers for our strategy!

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When I discovered them I watched a bunch of their videos and found them entertaining.  Then I heard Sosnoff completely dismiss trendfollowing and claimed that "no one" would be successfull long term and that all the most successful traders are/were discretionary traders.  It was obvious from the way he was talking about it that he simply wasn't informed on what trendfollowing is and definitely knew nothing of firms like Dunn, Cheseapeake, Campbell, AHL...etc etc

 

I dont give a crap if he's not a fan..people need to use what works for them.  But to be that black and white about it without having any idea what he was talking about was a big turnoff.

 

Contempt prior to investigation will keep a man in everlasting ignorance. (paraphrasing herbert spencer)

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I suspect that he does have an idea about trendfollowing. But it does not serve the main purpose of tastytrade which is generating commissions for TOS. trendfollowing doesn't require frequent trading.

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1 hour ago, SteadyOptions said:

I suspect that he does have an idea about trendfollowing. But it does not serve the main purpose of tastytrade which is generating commissions for TOS. trendfollowing doesn't require frequent trading.

fair point...but the way he was talking about it indicated a lack of understanding (if not awareness).  I'll see if I can find the video

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He wasn't trading for 30 years. He was a market maker in 1980s, then co-founding Thinkorswim in 1999 and sold it 10 years later. It doesn't necessarily mean he was trading by himself. I'm not even sure he is trading today. There is no evidence that he does. No track record, nothing.  

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in the business so to speak.

I think his subscribers can pay to follow his trades on dough but I haven't seen him publish any kind of performance stats.  Have you had any personal interaction with him?  

Edited by RapperT
syntax

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There used to be a number of tastytrade personalities that you could follow and see what they traded along with their results.  I was on the site recently however and couldn't find them.  The trade results were mixed, as I remember.  Most were profitable, only a few quite profitable and a few traders losing.  I didn't see anyone's trading style at that time that I wanted to follow though.

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I didn't have any personal interaction with Sosnoff. However I know that he was asked for years to provide his personal track record, and he has been refusing to do it. For someone who claims to be honest and transparent and take care of the retail investor, refusal to show track record speaks volume in my opinion.

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I  was just wondering, your antipathy for them seems extra high...haha

 

Yeah the lack of documented track record is all i needed to see to look elsewhere (luckily i did and ended up here).

 

Edited by RapperT
edit for content

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https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-087-tom-sosnoff/

 

"There has never been a quantitative model, either institutional or individual, that has beaten the market."

 

-also claimed that Tasty Trade methodology and HFT are the only way to consistently be successful. 

 

When the host confronted him with the fact that traders do exist who have been very successful with other methods, he replied "many of them lie." Obviously some traders do lie but the implication was that anyone who claims to be consistently successful is lying.   This was all in the first 28 minutes of the interview...havent listened to the rest

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11 minutes ago, RapperT said:

"There has never been a quantitative model, either institutional or individual, that has beaten the market."

 

-also claimed that Tasty Trade methodology and HFT are the only way to consistently be successful

 

When the host confronted him with the fact that traders do exist who have been very successful with other methods, he replied "many of them lie." Obviously some traders do lie but the implication was that anyone who claims to be consistently successful is lying.   This was all in the first 28 minutes of the interview...havent listened to the rest

Why I'm not surprised.. I guess he didn't see our track record. But this is the same guy who refuses for years to reveal his performance. There is even no proof that he actually trades.

 

 This is My 2015 Personal Account Return: 80.2% Tom Sosnoff, trading many strategies that are OPPOSITE to TastyTrade methodology. Care to show yours?

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you should listen to the podcast...it's provocative to say the least.  I almost wonder if its schtick.  I cant imagine he really believes only he knows how to be successful.  As you said, we dont even know if he actually is.

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So when I think of quantitative models - my first thought is Renaissance Technology - a hedge fund that was/is so successful that they returned most of the client money so they could continue trading their own capital. 

 

Quote

 

"From 2001 through 2013, the fund’s worst year was a 21 percent gain, after subtracting fees. Medallion reaped a 98.2 percent gain in 2008, the year the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 38.5 percent."

— Rubin and Collins. June 16, 2015. Bloomberg

 

 
 
 

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8 minutes ago, dbh21 said:

So when I think of quantitative models - my first thought is Renaissance Technology - a hedge fund that was/is so successful that they returned most of the client money so they could continue trading their own capital. 

 

 
 
 

I mean the list goes on and on...Renaissance is a great example. 

 

Bill Dunn has 30 years of documented success: 

dunn.jpg

dunn2.jpg

Edited by RapperT

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Just listened to the podcast. I must say that it is really rare collection of complete and unproved BS. I really feel sorry for his followers, especially novice traders who take his advice at face value.

 

Quote:

"THE ONLY WAY TO MAKE MONEY IN THE MARKET IS BY SELLING NAKED OPTIONS" 

 

Really??? 

 

Quote:

"When volatility is high we just sell it and wait for the positive theta to do the job"

 

Really? I have news for you Mr. Sosnoff: IV is usually high for a reason. If NFLX options imply 10% before earnings and the stock moves 20% or more, will positive theta really help you??

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I'm pretty shocked they would suggest this while VIX is near record lows. 

I work a little with a fund that sells weekly strangles on the SPX and I was talking to another one that sells monthly straddles on the SPX. Both are fairly conservative and very profitable. However, the difference is that they employ one single strategy, they have a team to monitor it, and they monitor it fiercly. In both cases they hedge out their naked positions quickly depending on the market. I can't imagine many TT listeners have that time or effort.

I'm also a little shocked that people have the time or desire to watch this program. There is a meetup here dedicated to TT followers.

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It is a complicated area.

I understand their apparatus because I am basically a mirror of them, in terms of our respective histories.

Both Tom and I got our first seat on the floor in 1980 and lived through the evolution of many different era's in the world of trading.

We both got "hip" to options in the days when there were no "exchange traded" options and were among the first to trade them and posted our "flags" on the (options) "moon" from the beginning.

All of the retail traders today, have not lived through that evolution. They just walk in the door and get the benefit of an enormous amount of knowledge and experience right up front.

I think I can benefit from Tom more easily than others because I understand where he is coming from. Both, in terms of the history of the knowledge, and how, the "pioneers" uncovered, all on our own, what everyone gets to enjoy today, in the electronic age.

I also understand his need to be a TV host with "schtick" to attract viewers commercially for what is basically "part" entertainment.

He definitely is NOT  all black or all white.

But, it takes a certain, experienced, objective mind,and perspective to be able to cipher the BS and entertainment, from the solid research and , mostly, good information.

But, for beginners, who do not know any better, yes, it can be dangerous stuff, if one cannot separate the inflated ego, and "our way is the only way"..from the good stuff.

And there really is a LOT of good stuff. But, you must enter at your own risk and be able to know the difference from "value"  and "BS".

I wish to God I had his data base and team of analysts available to ME.

I would use all of that valuable info and talent in a very different way.

I would use it to search for new ideas, rather than validate "my way" based upon "ego".

He REALLY does have all the tools to present a fabulous source of learning and research.

But, I feel he is up against satisfying competing interests being in the position he is in...plus , his ego does get in the way.

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I just want to add, or reiterate, that IF you are able to distill the 10% of BS that he is saying from the 90% of valuable information, it can be extremely helpful.

I will just point out 1 tidbit that I really should have known, and practiced, on my own, which because of the way it kept getting presented by TT, has increased my profitability in a very big way....and it is so damn simple.

It is the practice of locking in profits at some % of the the maximum value of the premium collected if held until expiration.

Even though they make such a fuss over the fact that they  ONLY sell options, which , on it's face, is just a stupid mindset to get locked into....this will be helpful whether you are short, or long premium, in a defined risk (spread) context.

You sell something for $2.00 If you wait until expiration, and live through all of the ever increasing risks of rising gamma that happens in the final days, the most you will make is $2.00.

The concept of taking profits at some % of full value has increased my profits, and reduced a high % of potential losers for me at least.

And, it makes good sense, just on it's face.

You sell a spread for $2.00 with 45 days to go, and after 3 weeks you can buy it back for .70 cents just before the period of rising gamma begins. This should be a no-brainer.

They focus on 50% of maximum profits but, it can be any pre-defined amount...and it gives more "discipline" to the trade.

It will work the other way too. If you are a "buyer" of a spread.

Because, in both cases, there is a pre-known, maximum value of the profit that can be achieved, you can take profits at your OWN defined % of that maximum profit.

In the end it is no different than simply having an exit plan and taking profits before you might end up giving all or some of them back.

Just take from TT what YOU feel is the reasonable, valuable, info and ideas, and make into something that is your own.

And discard the BS....you know the difference between the two!

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If it was only 10% BS.. It is much more.

 

The concept of taking profits at pre-defined point is well known. It is not something invented by tastytrade. The concept of negative gamma risk is well known too. You might notice that I never hold negative gamma spreads till expiration - in fact, I rarely hold them till expiration week. My rule of thumb is to cover the short spread for 20-30% of the maximum value. tastytrade advocates 50%, which is fine - but you need to define a rule and stick to it. Discipline is the key.

 

"And discard the BS....you know the difference between the two!" - here lies the biggest problem: you and I might know the difference. I bet 90% of his followers don't. They just take 100% of what he says at its face value, especially when he says it with such conviction and charisma.

 

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2 minutes ago, SteadyOptions said:

If it was only 10% BS.. It is much more.

 

The concept of taking profits at pre-defined point is well known. It is not something invented by tastytrade. The concept of negative gamma risk is well known too. You might notice that I never hold negative gamma spreads till expiration - in fact, I rarely hold them till expiration week. My rule of thumb is to cover the short spread for 20-30% of the maximum value. tastytrade advocates 50%, which is fine - but you need to define a rule and stick to it. Discipline is the key.

 

"And discard the BS....you know the difference between the two!" - here lies the biggest problem: you and I might know the difference. I bet 90% of his followers don't. They just take 100% of what he says at its face value, especially when he says it with such conviction and charisma.

 

I'm sorry if it came across that I was saying that taking profits at some % of max value was "invented" by TT. Of course it was not.

I was just saying that this is something I should have been more focused on..on my own, all along, and it was just coincidence, i guess, that it happpened to be TT who made me think more about it.

The idea of "defining your profits" is as old as trading itself. TT did not invent it.

But , wherever I may have gotten it into my head from, and was the cause for improved profits, has been helpful to me.

I know that you do the same, or similar thing as well. All good traders do some variation of this.

It just turned out that I happened to get the idea shoved into my face by them, only because I had been listening to them for a few years.

I only started with you just recently.

But, it could have been the other way around. It's just the way it happened to work out.

And you are VERY right about all of the people, most definitely the majority of more novice traders, who , since they are coming into this not knowing much, ARE very vulnerable to believing all of the BS from TT because of the "appearance" that they present. A lot of that is a function of it also being a "trading entertainment" show!

But, both you and I, can easily present a long list of all of the stuff that they are saying that is pure nonsense.

And I bet our lists would be identical.

We all know, on balance, as a seller of premium, you have more things working in your favor than a net buyer.

But, anyone who makes an "Absolute" committment to NEVER be long premium is out of their minds.

There is probably a lot of "ego" involved in that.

They have "drawn their line in the sand" and now they have to stick by it!

Even though I am probably short premium 80% of the time....I am sure that I have made more money the 20% of the time that I found the right moments to be long premium and had the value of "leverage" working for me.

But, that is a dangerous thing because, over the long run, being long premium will be a loser if it is all you do.

After making an outsized return from the leverage of being long premium, and having it work, it is too easy for many people to fall into the trap of getting "addicted" to it.

And that is where they will start to go downhill.

It took a long time but, I understand what generally is the right balance and being long premium , for me, despite the gains, is still the exception, never the rule.

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Not sure if you had a chance to see this article about buying pre-earnings straddles. Their study was so absurd that I still cannot understand if it's ignorance or deliberate, skewing the rules in their favor to reach the desired results. When I confronted them and proved how skewed their study was, instead if admitting it, they just removed the study. But after some time they made another one, with similar results. They based the whole study on 2-4 stocks, which are among the worst for this strategy, and set the worst possible parameters. And they call it "research".

 

But I'm not complaining. As I said few times, we need someone to sell us those straddles so we can profit.. I just feel sorry for his followers who blindly trust his "studies" without double checking them.  

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10 minutes ago, SteadyOptions said:

Not sure if you had a chance to see this article about buying pre-earnings straddles. Their study was so absurd that I still cannot understand if it's ignorance or deliberate, skewing the rules in their favor to reach the desired results. When I confronted them and proved how skewed their study was, instead if admitting it, they just removed the study. But after some time they made another one, with similar results. They based the whole study on 2-4 stocks, which are among the worst for this strategy, and set the worst possible parameters. And they call it "research".

 

But I'm not complaining. As I said few times, we need someone to sell us those straddles so we can profit.. I just feel sorry for his followers who blindly trust his "studies" without double checking them.  

That is what I meant about them "drawing a line in the sand" about a particular strategy, approach, concept, etc.

I think there is a lot of "ego" involved.

Now that they have made a claim, unlike more "enlightened" people, who have the ability to re evaluate, and admit they might have missed something, or flat out wrong, they require, of themselves, to have to defend it.

You can make any claim you want, and , if you massage the data enough...you can easily make it appear that you have "proved" that your idea is right.

"Just look, this goes back 10 years, 5000 occurances, etc"

I think I remember watching, either the one you are talking about, or another one on the same subject, and just thinking "oh come on!"

I mentioned that I traded on the floor of many exchanges for 30+ years.

But , the first 12 years that I was on the floor,it was only "commodity" exchanges (Gold, sugar, crude etc).

I traded "professionally" for 12 years and never once, ever, bought or sold a stock, or stock option.

Then I bought a seat on the Amex, which is where the SPY was invented, among others, plus options on most stocks.

So, the whole "equity" mentality was all new to me. Even after 12 years on the floor.

I never even heard, or paid attention to the concept of earnings.

But, after I was there about 6 months, someone who I was friendly with, pointed out that everybody , in some form , or another, buys IV at some period leading up to earnings. Before , or just as IV is beginning to start it's move up...and the "secret" is "always get 100% OUT of the position just before earnings are announced.

They would wait until 3:55 to get out.

But, I must point out that this was like 1992, and there was no "retail" community to speak of....and definitely no retail trading platforms.

So it was "easy pickings" at that time, and it worked pretty much all the time.

But, everything was much simpler, and there was less competition from a "knowledgable" retail public.

Anyway, that was my introduction to the whole basic concept.

We did not necessarily get long "textbook" strategies, like straddles etc.

We just bought front month, delta neutral, IV.

For example, buy 100 30 delta puts and buy 3000 shares of underlying. It's all the same thing.

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I was mostly premium seller and I have mixed experience. it works well most of the time - until it doesn't.

I followed mostly TastyTrade.  It sounds really good in theory, but the strategies are easier to describe than to implement. I started looking for alternatives and found SO.

The Pre-Earnings Straddles is an amazing strategy. It is high probability and low risk, and unlike premium selling, when you lose, you don't lose much.

Tom Sosnoff claims that selling premium is the only way to make money in options, but SteadyOptions is a living proof that this is not true.

There is a good reason why none of tastytraders (including Sosnoff) is willing to reveal their track record. Unlike SO, they are simply not profitable.

 

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I agree. I used to trade like tasty trader & lost significant portion of net worth. chasing losing trade by rolling up/down strike, premium selling before earning announcement, maintaining short delta, all looks crazy concept to me now. I am glad that I woke up before I lose everything but it was little late.

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I have been SteadyOptions member almost since the beginning. I will take this paid site over "free" tastytrade every day. 

btw, Kim was among the few ones who called Karen Supertrader fraud when everyone else considered her a hero. Good call. Not the only one.

tastytrade has an army of marketers and "researchers". Ever wondered who is financing all those parasites? I can guarantee you it's not Tom Sosnoff. 

 

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The one thing that they are absolutely unshakable about is...they will NEVER buy premium, EVER, under any conditions.

The kiss of death in this business, is a closed mind, and not being open to learning, and exploring new ideas.

Yes, there is a lot to be said about premium selling but, there is a time and place for everything.

Personally, when I do sell premium, I like to have "defined risk".

I remember a segment of theirs , when they were trying to make people feel comfortable selling outright straddles, and strangles, and how there REALLY isn't the great risks associated with it that most people think.

They did one of their "curve fitted" backtests, to show how a "black swan" really only happens once every 10 years, so there is 9 years 264 days that you are missing out on, by buying protection.

It might be acceptable to be short a straddle, while the market is open, so that you can defend it if necessary but, at closing time, you have to buy protection.

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16 hours ago, cuegis said:

The one thing that they are absolutely unshakable about is...they will NEVER buy premium, EVER, under any conditions.

The kiss of death in this business, is a closed mind, and not being open to learning, and exploring new ideas.

Something everyone should frame and put above their PC when trading - thing is that looking for patterns is a fundamental part of human nature. It is probably the prime evolutionary edge that put humans where they are on this planet. Hence we all have a tendency to look for patterns and we are very good at it - in fact we can see patterns in pure chaos (e.g. the Rorschach blot test or indeed the stockmarket). The attraction of a simple pattern based rule like "Sell premium" is that its easy to understand and satisfies a very deep seated psychological need in us. Accepting that for 99%+ the stockmarket is a walk in the park is counter-intuitive to almost everybody, show a technical analyst a chart generated by a random number function and they will show you resistance patterns and supports - its even harder for people to let go of a pattern that was once successful but due to change of circumstances or arbitrage stops being successful.

I only came across Sosnoff earlier this year - at first I was intrigued and amused - some of his stuff is quite entertaining. However when you look at their 'remedies for trades gone bad' is when you realise they are a lethal danger. Inevitably they recommend sticking to the bad trade and for Iron Condors for example reducing them eventually to an Iron Fly practically locking in losses at every step and making the chances of breaking even let alone profit smaller and smaller. In an exchange with them over that they stubbornly stuck to the POV that whilst my remark was valid sticking with the strategy for better or worse was the way to do things. Thats where I checked out.

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The idea of selling options based on the premises that "90% of options expire worthless, so lets sell them. Lets be the house" sounds compelling to new traders - until they have few big losses and start to realize that things are more complicated.

After being burned countless times, tastytrade continue recommending selling options before earnings on high flying stocks. Just ask those who did it before last FB earnings - Lessons From Facebook Earnings Disaster. Try to repair this one after it lost 10 times all previous wins worth.

So many people follow Tom Sosnoff because of his charisma - they simply don't realize how risky and dangerous his methods are.

 

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This pervasive statement that gets thrown around about "90% of options expiring worthless" is so wrong, on so many different levels.

We can go down a long list of all of the reasons why it is totally meaningless. But, it is a LONG list.

For example...just from an "option buyer" point of view, the question really should be "where did the option travel to throughout it's lifetime.?"

It may have traded $2, then .10 , then $8, then .50, then $17 and expire worthless.

Who knows how many options buyers could have bought it for $2, and sold it for $8 during it's lifetime, with the knowledge that it is a wasting asset, and one should be out of it before the heaviest time erosion starts to hit.

That is just one, of dozens, of reasons that could be given.

Then there is the whole other dimension of more "sophisticated" traders, who buy one option, and sell another against , as a spread, etc.

The list goes on, and on...

They are SO irresponsible in all of their presentations, because they are approaching it from a "marketing" perspective, rather than an educational one.

And, worst of all, they are appealing to a group of people, who are mostly novices, and appealing to that desire of wanting to make easy money.

It "sounds" so good to these people but, out of everything they present, it is just "theoretical" ideas, attempting to be backed up by "curve fitted" back tests.

They never actually go through a systematic, step by step, explanation, of a "coherent" strategy. Just nice sounding ideas, which do not work, in the long run, and probably even in the short run.

Edited by cuegis

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12 hours ago, luxmon said:

Tom must either have a very short memory or getting desperate; he brought back Karen to share her "success story"

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/geeks-on-parade/episodes/trading-for-your-future-with-karen-geeks-2019-07-22-2019

I used to give Tom the benefit of the doubt and thought he was trying to do right and maybe just kept making mistakes or misspeaking but this happens over and over again.   I try to watch their Market Measures everyday to see what strategies they are backtesting.    Its almost unwatchable now.  The way they present the data is so misleading.   For example, they will show how covered calls on SPY are great because they reduced volatility and compare the volatility of the covered call to buy and hold SPY to show the covered call is better.   Tom then says "If anyone tries to tell you selling options against your position does not work you need to RUN away from them."    They then "forget" to show the return profiles between the covered call and buy and hold because that would have shown buy and hold to outperform the covered call (on SPY from 2006-present).   

 

Because they want people to trade options (and generate commissions for TasyWorks), I feel this is misleading and almost criminal.   Its like Burger King having their own TV channel and telling people they should always eat burgers all the time for all their meals because they taste great and its the best way to eat when we have actual data and science that shows this is not true.

 

 

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I  still give him benefit of the doubt as I take his show as entertainment. People take a bizarre interest in the likes of Karen. I saw this for the first time in the 1980ies when courtesy of Uncle Sam a Dutch investor- I use the word loosely here - was convicted of fraud for his investment offering called American Land Program. Its main point was to sell plots of desert as potential sites of urban development and therefore profit. It was wrong in more ways than I can describe in a post suffice to say the investors money was gone.

 

The perpetrator spent time in a us jail and later got into civil and I think lendl trouble back home too. Once out of jail he obtained guru status... why you will ask? I have no idea he was a fraud and on top of that his ideas were unsound. Yet he has a rabidly vociferous group of supporters and managed to get himself on TV and internet talking gig circuit where he pronounces inanities as if they were profound.

Even mainstream media have  been taken in by now and it's so lucrative he doesn't need to commit fraud anymore go figure.

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They did it again!

tastytrade brings the convicted criminal Karen the SuperTrader to their show again. She is using the fees she collected from her clients to travel the world while her victims still recovering from the millions of losses she caused.
 
 
Instead of admitting they were wrong to bring her to the show to to promote her, they are doubling and tripling down on a losing trade.

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ByBit is an unregulated crypto broker that is systematically abused by scammers - generally masquerading as western women but frequently are people operating from China or Myanmar - the practice is called 'butchering the pig' or “Shāzhūpán” in Chinese. This involves enticing punters to go onto platforms - of which ByBit is the MOST NOTORIOUS - getting them to make small profits and then enticing them to transfer vast amounts to the account. This is then subsequently locked because TAX needs to be paid - once that final transfer is made the scammer disappears and the ByBit account turns out to be empty.

 

So the difference with TastyWorks that is a regulated broker where your money is protected by actually decent rule of law countries' regulation and enforcement, could not be bigger. Having said that ByBit's one redeeming feature may be that they dont have Tom Sosnoff who rubs many people the wrong way. No matter how dis-likable some people find Tom - he won't steal your money like 90%+ of people promoting ByBit.

 

Worse is that there are many spoof platforms of GoByBit and these will also steal your identity and cause you no end of pain if you register your personal information and IDs on them. The scammers operate from all kinds of sources like LinkedIn, dating apps or serious investment websites trying to get people to contact them. The result is invariably that your money will be fleeced from you if you fall to their scams.

 

So yes, the difference between TastyWorks and ByBit is very large though not as large as someone who attempts to promote the scammer site through a serious investment site where people aren't completely devoid of personal intelligence and actually experienced in trading real securities rather than vapor-crypto accounts.

 

This was a public service announcement.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/everything-is-fake-how-global-gangs-are-using-uk-shell-companies-in-multi-million-pound-crypto-scams

https://www.tenable.com/blog/pig-butchering-scam-tinder-tiktok-whatsapp-telegram-scammers-steal-millions

 

Note for Barbs @BarbaraBraun you are likely just an AI so there is no point addressing you directly but insofar as you are a human being - likely male and in China - try and keep your dignity and stop promoting scams.

 

 

 

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While I do appreciate some of the educational content Tasty provides and the platform has some unique features for options traders I wish other brokerages would implement, the focus of their operation is drive trading volume (option fees) and the use of margin---which is how they make money. 

No corporation gets rich telling the vast majority of traders they would be better served buying low cost index funds and focusing their energy on building their careers or starting a small business.

 

Edited by KingTide

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    • By Stephan Haller
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      image source: TOS trading platform  
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      image source: TOS trading platform  
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      Set up
      As shown in my books, IWM, FXE, TLT, GLD, XLE are the most uncorrelated ETFs. With these underlyings you have exposure to the Russell 2000, the Euro Currency, Bonds, Gold and the Oil Sector.
       
      Rules
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        Portfolio Performance
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      IWM

      image source: TOS trading platform
        FXE

      image source: TOS trading platform  
      TLT

      image source: TOS trading platform  
      GLD

      image source: TOS trading platform  
      XLE

      image source: TOS trading platform  
      Portfolio


      So far in dollar terms a $1,571.50 loss or 1.571% loss on the whole portfolio.

      Not too bad considering the IV explosion and the big moves, especially in TLT.

      As you can see, even in a tough market with big outside the expected moves and IV explosion, short strangles/straddles are not a recipe for disaster.

      The key is to trade small when IV is low and mechanically adjust your positions/deltas.

      Of course the expiration cycle is not over yet and we can still have more big moves and much higher implied volatility in the coming days, but you should have seen now, when you have the right set of rules and religiously stick to these rules and when you trade small enough when IV is low, you are not going to blow up your portfolio.

      Stephan Haller is an author, teacher, options trader and public speaker with over 20 years of experience in the financial markets. Check out his trilogy on options trading here. This article is used here with permission and originally appeared here.



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    • By Kim
      Here is how their methodology works:
       
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      Study Parameters:


      TSLA, LNKD, NFLX, AAPL, GOOG Past 4 earnings cycles 14 days prior to earnings - purchased future ATM straddle Sold positions on the close before earnings  
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      As an example:
       
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      At SteadyOptions, buying pre-earnings straddles is one of our key strategies. It works very well for us. Check out our performance page for full results. As you can see from our results, "Buying Premium Prior To Earnings" is still alive and kicking. Not exactly "Nail In The Coffin".
       
      Comment: the segment has been removed from tastytrade website, which shows that they realized how absurd it was. We linked to the YouTube video which is still there.
       
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      Subscribe to SteadyOptions now and experience the full power of options trading at your fingertips. Click the button below to get started!

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    • By Kim
      This is a critical issue that many traders don't fully understand.

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      "A year after Nassim Taleb came to visit him, Victor Niederhoffer blew up. He sold a very large number of options on the S. & P. index, taking millions of dollars from other traders in exchange for promising to buy a basket of stocks from them at current prices, if the market ever fell. It was an unhedged bet, or what was called on Wall Street a “naked put,” meaning that he bet everyone on one outcome: he bet in favor of the large probability of making a small amount of money, and against the small probability of losing a large amount of money-and he lost. On October 27, 1997, the market plummeted eight per cent, and all of the many, many people who had bought those options from Niederhoffer came calling all at once, demanding that he buy back their stocks at pre-crash prices. He ran through a hundred and thirty million dollars — his cash reserves, his savings, his other stocks — and when his broker came and asked for still more he didn’t have it. In a day, one of the most successful hedge funds in America was wiped out. Niederhoffer had to shut down his firm. He had to mortgage his house. He had to borrow money from his children. He had to call Sotheby’s and sell his prized silver collection.
       
      A month or so before he blew up, Taleb had dinner with Niederhoffer at a restaurant in Westport, and Niederhoffer told him that he had been selling naked puts. You can imagine the two of them across the table from each other, Niederhoffer explaining that his bet was an acceptable risk, that the odds of the market going down so heavily that he would be wiped out were minuscule, and Taleb listening and shaking his head, and thinking about black swans. “I was depressed when I left him,” Taleb said. “Here is a guy who, whatever he wants to do when he wakes up in the morning, he ends up better than anyone else. Whatever he wakes up in the morning and decides to do, he did better than anyone else. I was talking to my hero . . .” This was the reason Taleb didn’t want to be Niederhoffer when Niederhoffer was at his height — the reason he didn’t want the silver and the house and the tennis matches with George Soros. He could see all too clearly where it all might end up. In his mind’s eye, he could envision Niederhoffer borrowing money from his children, and selling off his silver, and talking in a hollow voice about letting down his friends, and Taleb did not know if he had the strength to live with that possibility. Unlike Niederhoffer, Taleb never thought he was invincible. You couldn’t if you had watched your homeland blow up, and had been the one person in a hundred thousand who gets throat cancer, and so for Taleb there was never any alternative to the painful process of insuring himself against catastrophe.
       
      Last fall, Niederhoffer sold a large number of options, betting that the markets would be quiet, and they were, until out of nowhere two planes crashed into the World Trade Center. “I was exposed. It was nip and tuck.” Niederhoffer shook his head, because there was no way to have anticipated September 11th. “That was a totally unexpected event.”
       
      Well, guess what - unexpected events happen. More often than you can imagine.
       


      The market bottomed right after Niederhoffer was margin called. By November, the market was back near highs. His 830 puts went on to expire worthless - meaning his trade, had he been able to hold on, turned out to be profitable.

      But his leverage forced his liquidation. He was oversized and couldn't ride the trade out.

      Niederhoffer had shorted so many puts that a run-of-the-mill two-day market selloff sent him out on a stretcher.

      If he had sized the trade correctly, he would have survived the ride and took home a small profit. But the guy was playing on tilt, got greedy, maybe a bit arrogant, and lost all of his client's money.
       
      Karen is managing over 300 million dollars now. Her annual returns are in a 25-30% range. Are those good returns, based on the risk she takes?
       
      Not in my opinion. I believe that betting 300 million dollars on naked options is a disaster waiting to happen. I'm sure that most of her investors are not aware of the huge risks she is taking. Niederhoffer's story should be a good lesson, but for most people, it isn't. Unfortunately, people desperately want to believe there is a way to make money with no or little risk.
       
      Personally, I have hard time to understand why Sosnoff is promoting those strategies. But this is a different story.

      As a side note, this article is not an attempt to bash tastytrade. It is an attempt to show a different side of the coin and point out some historical cases. If we don't learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it. tastytrade advocates selling premium based on "high IV percentile". They ignore the fact that IV is usually high for a reason. Personally, I consider selling naked options before earnings on a high flying stocks like NFLX, AMZN, ULTA, TSLA etc. as a very high risk trading. tastytrade followers consider those trades safe and conservative. Matter of point of view I guess.

      Some tastytrade followers argued that PUT Write index performed better than SPX. And it is true. But those are completely different strategies. The original purpose of PUT Write index (or any naked put strategy) is to buy stock at a discount and reduce risk. As long as you sell the same number of contracts as the number of shares you are willing to own, you should be fine, and in many cases to outperform the underlying stock or index. The problem with Karen Supertrader and Niederhoffer was that they used too much leverage. They sold those naked options just to collect premium. Same is true when you sell strangles before earnings.
       
      Related articles:
      Karen SuperTrader: Myth Or Reality? Karen Supertrader: Too Good To Be True? Do You Still Believe in Fairy Tales? Selling Naked Put Options The Spectacular Fall Of LJM Preservation And Growth James Cordier: Another Options Selling Firm Goes Bust  
      June 2016 update:  Turns out Karen is under investigation by the SEC. Read the details here and here.
    • By Kim
      We already debunked some of those "studies" here and here. Today we will debunk another study, and will show how to do it properly.

      On July 7, 2015, tastytrade conducted a study using AAPL, GMCR, AMZN and TSLA. An ATM straddle was purchased 21 days prior to earnings and closed the day before earnings. A table showed the results. The win rate, total P/L, average P/L per day, biggest win and biggest loss were shown:

        

      Their conclusion:



      Wait... They concluded that buying volatility prior to earnings doesn't work based on 4 stocks? Why those 4 specific stocks? Why 21 days prior to earnings?

      Our members know that those 4 stocks are among the worst to use for this strategy. They also know that entering 21 days prior to earnings is usually way too early (there are some exceptions).

      Also, what is a significance of dollar P/L when comparing stocks like AMZN and AAPL? At current prices, AMZN straddle would cost around $8,500 while AAPL straddle around $1,200. Theoretically, if we had a 10% loss on AMZN (-$850) and 50% gain on AAPL ($600), the total P/L would be -$250. But the correct calculation would be total P/L of +40% because we need to give equal dollar weight to all trades.

      But lets see how changing just one parameter can change the results dramatically. We will be using AAPL as an example. 

      First lets use the study parameter of 21 days.


      Tap Here to See the back-test

      Entering 21 days prior to earnings is indeed a losing proposition. But lets change it to 10 days and see what happens:


      Tap Here to See the back-test
       
      Can you see how changing one single parameter changes the results dramatically? I have a feeling that tastytrade knew that 21 days would be not the best time to enter - but using different parameters wouldn't fit their thesis.


      Now lets test the strategy on some of our favorite stocks.

      NKE, 14 days and 15% profit target:


      Tap Here to See the back-test
       

      MSFT, 7 days and 15% profit target:
       

      Tap Here to See the back-test


      CSCO, 21 days and 10% profit target:


      Tap Here to See the back-test

       
      IBM, 7 days and 15% profit target:


      Tap Here to See the back-test

       
      ORCL, 14 days and 20% profit target:


      Tap Here to See the back-test

       
      WMT, 7 days and 10% profit target:
       

      Tap Here to See the back-test
       

      As you can see, different stocks require different timing and different profit targets. Some work better entering 7 days prior to earnings, some might improve performance with an entry as early as 21 days prior to earnings.

      The bottom line is: you cannot just select random stocks, combine it with random timing and no trade management, and declare that the strategy doesn't work. But if you select the stocks carefully, combine it with the right timing and trade management, it works very well. Here are our results, based on live trades, not skewed "studies":


       
      Related Articles:
      How We Trade Straddle Option Strategy Buying Premium Prior to Earnings Can We Profit From Volatility Expansion into Earnings Long Straddle: A Guaranteed Win? Why We Sell Our Straddles Before Earnings Is 5% A Good Return For Options Trades?
    • By Kim
      What lessons we can learn from this debacle?
       
      Were the Skeptics Right?
       
      "Self-taught options trader Karen Bruton (aka Karen the Supertrader) earned so much so quickly that some skeptics doubted her. In reality, the SEC says, she improperly concealed more than $50 million of losses."
       
      The new allegations paint a very un-uber portrait of Bruton, 66, a self-taught options trader who mesmerized fans and flummoxed skeptics with her life story of parlaying a $10,000 initial investment into a fortune and seemingly endless stream of profits.
       
      I'm still trying to understand the motives of tastytrade when they promoted her as making $105MM PROFIT, without properly discussing the risks. They also failed to mention that most of the growth in her fund came from  new money and not actual profits. Was it extreme ignorance or some hidden agenda? You decide.
       
      As a reminder, Karen claimed to make 25-30% per year by selling naked options on indexes. 
       
      The important point is this: 
       
      As I mentioned in my article, there is only one way to make 25-30% per year with this strategy: leverage. Combine leverage with naked strangle strategy which is very risky to begin with is a certain path to financial disaster.
       
      Leverage Can Kill You!
       
      Our contributor Jesse wrote over a year ago:
       
      "All trading has risk. It's not the strategy that determines if something is risky...it's the position size (amount of leverage) and risk management that does (and then the discipline of the trader to follow the plan which often means taking a pre-defined loss before it gets out of control)."
       
      Is selling naked options risky? That's the wrong question - ask better questions, and you'll get better answers...Is selling excessively leveraged naked options that aren't cash secured risky? Yes, eventually. Short strangles on SPX and other index products are money making trades over the long term, you just have to use sensible position size and sensible exits. Just don't get greedy. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
       
      "The point here is not to dismiss all volatility and option selling strategies as useless and blow up prone. The short volatility trade on equity indices is one of the best trades out there. It does very well long-term. " 
       
      The point is to understand your risk. In fact, be obsessed with risk management if you want to survive as a trader for the long term.
       
      Well said Jesse.
       

       
      Also Hiding the Losses?
       
      To add insult to injury, Karen Bruton also started to hide the losses by rolling options positions, as explained here:
       
      "Between October and December of 2014, Karen took some heavy losses selling her options. But to keep the incentive fees coming in, she organized a sophisticated options roll at the end of each month. This allowed her to still “realize gains” of 1% every month to take fees from, while pushing unrealized losses out to the next month. Month after month the losses continued to snowball while she continued to collect her fees.
       
      Each month began with a huge realized loss. (The SEC reports that these losses now exceed $50 million dollars.) She offset these accrued losses by selling a ton of in-the-money call options on the S&P 500 E-mini futures due to expire at the end of the month. This injected fresh cash into the fund. Just enough so that she could report a small realized gain to investors. That way she could take fees that month too…
       
      But of course there’s no free lunch in trading. You don’t get gains out of nowhere. When these call options expired, yes she had her cash injection (from the option premium), but she was also left with a futures position (due to assignment) that carried a huge unrealized loss. Here’s where the loss rolling came in. She needed that futures position to stay open until the next month because if she closed it beforehand, that would realize a loss and cancel out the profits from the calls she sold. That means no incentive fees.
       
      So to cover this futures position, she would simultaneously purchasein-the-money call options expiring the following month on the same day she sold those original in-the-money call options. These calls allowed her to offset any gains or losses the futures incurred at the end of the month until the beginning of the next month.
       
      This all smells like a classic Ponzi scheme…Pay the old investors with money from the new ones."
       

       
      We are very familiar with those "rolling" techniques. Many options newsletters are using them to hide their losses. As we always said, rolling options position is simply hiding the loss.
       
      The Hope Investments fund has been created in March 2011, and October 2014 was only the second time since creation when S&P declined more than 10%. First time (August 2011) she probably hasn't been using as much leverage yet. If the fund experienced such significant losses after 10% market decline, imagine what would happen in 2008-like environment.
       
      SJ Options summed it up  nicely:
       
      "It’s very important to alert the public of the true risks involved in short strangles because in the interviews the risk is not discussed as much as it should be.  Because of the excessive media exposure, there are many of retail traders attempting to trade this uncovered options strategy that has nearly unlimited risk potential. The short strangle is not as easy as it appears to be.  Margins change quickly and it’s vulnerable to quick losses and margin calls.  Be very careful with this strategy.  We conducted an 85 year backtest of the short strangle, 45 days to expiration, and it lost money overall."
       
      Tastytrade Response
       
      Tom Sosnoff was asked to respond to Karen Bruton story after the SEC complaint. You can watch his response here (18 minute mark). He continues to defend her, calls her "a very special person" and a victim of an evil government. Tom calls all the publications about Karen "crap". He claims that Karen was actually not paid enough in her fund. However, according to the SEC complaint,  "Between November 2014 and March 2016, Hope collected over $6 million in incentive fees from the HI Fund. As of the same date, the HI Fund had unrealized losses of approximately $57 million." So she took $6M in illegal fees while the fund was down $57M, and Tom says that she was underpaid...
       
      Sosnoff also continues to claim that Karen "made ton of money" for her investors. He still sticks to his claim that she turned $100k into $105M between 2008 and 2011, "forgetting" to mention that most of those profits came from new investors money. God knows his true motives, but this article from 2014 gives some insights into the whole "tastytrade/dough/TD Ameritrade" scheme.
       
      Here are some articles about Karen SuperTrader:
      Karen SuperTrader: Myth Or Reality? Karen The Supertrader by Optionstradingiq A Glimpse of option strategies of Karen Karen The Supertrader Interviewed by tastytrade Karen the Supertrader's Winning Strategy Relied on Fraud, SEC Alleges Karen The Supertrader - SJ Options Tastytrade: A Shill with Skills The Spectacular Fall Of LJM Preservation And Growth
    • By Kogelet
      Dear community!

      I would like to get an opinion about the following video. I posted the link below. 
      After making some research, I made the following assumptions and conclusions. 
      - Options are probability-based financial instruments. The premium paid for buying a straddle is supposed to include all risks related to the potential change of IV, theta, gamma. 
      - The chances of gain are 50/50 similarly to any short time predictions of the market price. Besides, you lose the spread and pay commissions. 
      - Options pricing already includes any potential increase in IV and time decay is more likely to kill the potential trade.
      - As the markets are very efficient, Options pricing already includes information about historical volatility. Even if we find stocks with high historical volatility during previous earnings, the greeks are always balanced between each other to make your chances of win to 50/50 minus spreads & commissions. 
      So, what you think?
       
       
      As options are 
       
       
    • Guest Chris
      By Guest Chris
      Tom Sossnoff a business man in the trading space has now created his own brokerage firm. Ugh! He seems to make money in creating businesses with in the trading space as he has been on the wrong side of the market as a trader for the past 6 years. It seems he wants all commissions instead of a portion hence his relationship with TD Ameritrade. Thoughts?
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