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cwelsh

GLD Diagonal

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As I look at this trade, and what we know about equivalent option positions, I don't get how this is different then buying a long dated OTM put and selling a lower ratio of shorter dated OTM puts and then adjusting from there week to week or vice versa with calls?

 

Yes w/ the current strategy your shorts gain quite a bit early in the trade if the underlying price goes up, however your long puts also lose a near equivalent amount if you are in a ratio.

 

The difference is in the capturing of extrinsic value -- selling OTM puts, particularly those far OTM as you suggest, does not get you very much extrinsic value, and it gets you $0.00 intrinsic if the market moves the wrong way. 

 

You can do this with calls as well, but puts are typically priced slightly higher ATM.  I am also downward biased right now, so stay on the put side.

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Yes, I was 1 to 1 right away. In this trade we WANT GLD to stay below 126. Lets assume GLD will NEVER go up and stay at $118 till end of the trade. At expiration my LONG 126 will gain all the DELTA. So it will be 126-118 = 6 , times 400, would be $2400. In the mean time there are many weeks left, and we can continue get weekly premium. As long as I get $.89 per week extrinsic, I still would capture 4% profit.  At this point, the long is worth $4K or so. So if I liquidate today, I would be about broken even....

 

 

Max,   "126-118 = 6"      Should be 8, yes?     Making your gains even better on the long put.    

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Max,

 

How will you account in your spreadsheet if you have to re-position the long at all?

 

 

Will simply add another row, put the value of the sold long in "sale column". I would only roll up, so it would imply a loss on that LONG, which would require raising needed premium. 

 

 

 

 

I don't understand how the trade is going well.  If I entered the same position last Friday at end of day, wouldn't I be as well or better off as those in the original trade?  I would be out about $4k out of pocket for the DITM long and take in around $1571 for the short.  My long would be worth $4k and my short -$1571, so I would be about break even at that point and have the same allocation as you.  You are about break even now.

 

 

Yes, you could probably get into similar position last Friday. I think one of the things that many folks need to learn to live with, is that calendar trades, do not behave like any other trades. You can't graph the P&L of calendar trade for the entire duration. Sure, you can graph the current short, and current long, but not the entire duration. When I say the trade is doing great, what do I mean? I mean the following: 

1. I am getting my extrinsic collected. 

2. I do not have to roll my LONG

3. The whip sawing action have not crossed the short strike. 

 

Bottom line as long as I collect the extrinsic needed, I am on track to generate my profit. I do not mind short term losses on the short, as long as the whip saw action is limited to amount I have intrinsic in my sold shorts. 

 

As far as you being able to buy DITM Long, yes you could. But that requires higher capital to get in, vs. getting in at the money. So your returns on capital will be lower. (I had to drop in capital to maintain the trade). I do not see a reason, of using the capital until I have to, like I needed in this case. When initiating the trade, we certainly hope that we will not need to infuse additional funds into it. But you SHOULD NOT get into any of these trades, without either having plenty of margin room, or free capital available, to be able to cover your short positions on a strong down move. Remember its a TEMPORARY loss, as your DITM LONG will pay those losses back at expiration. 

 

So overall, we are on track to make the expected profit. Hence the trade is doing great. 

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Max,   "126-118 = 6"      Should be 8, yes?     Making your gains even better on the long put.    

 

Yes it was a typo. So at expiration if GLD stayed at $118, we would collect $3200 on the long. (its at $119.50) as I write this.... making us a decent profit on the short. 

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Guest giorgio

Chris,

 

I have the   july19 put 121. With gld at 122 for the moment I want to roll but must I roll to  july19 or I can already roll to july26 ?

Thanks

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Guest giorgio

close july19 put121 @ 1.61

sell july19 put 124 @ 3.25

 

extrinsic = 0.90

 

Gld was at 121.68

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Gold futures after Ben Bernanke's comment that the Feds won't step off on QE easily has risen up 3.20% after 4pm EST, if the current level holds this means GLD will be at 128 to 129.

 

What's your guys plan?

 

I'm currently leaning towards closing the whole calendar spread for a loss. Or rolling up my long put to the current ATM level, as well as the short put to whatever will be delta neutral. Both would entail realizing a loss, 

 

Best,

PC 

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Why would you close at a loss?  This week has been GREAT.  Remember, it's a payoff over time.  Going into yesterday, I needed 0.88 per week to meet my PROFIT goal.

 

So today I:

 

With GLD @ 123.98

 

Bought to Close the Jul 20 122 Put @ 0.92

Sold to Open the Jul 26 125 Put @ 2.74

 

Net credit of: 1.82

Extrinsic value for next two weeks: $1.72

 

I also was NOT in a ratio trade, and now I'm in a 80% ratio

 

E.g. If before I had 5 contracts short and 5 long, now I am 4 short and 5 long (though I have not closed out my extra 1 contract of the Jul 20 122 Put,I'm going to watch that for a while -- it might even expire worthless, if the market goes the other way, I'll close it out).

 

After this trade, my needed per week is $0.75.

 

In other words, I'm WELL ahead of my profit target.

 

Remember this was never a one week trade -- this is an over time trade, and yes, while there is a paper loss on the long position, the trade itself is doing great still.  As long as we keep collecting our $0.75 extrinsic value per week, in the end, we'll end up averaging a 5% per week profit (I'm in the September expiration).

 

Never forget the design and weekly goals of a trade -- yes we have a paper loss right now, but so what, we are better off today on THIS TRADE then when it opened.

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Ok I'm jumping in.

 

GLD was @ 123.95 and I opened the following:

 

Bought Sep 30 125 put @ 5.50

Sold  Jul 20 125 put @ 2.21

 

So I have 11 weeks till the LONG expires, and have a goal of .79/week and break-even is at .51.  For Week 1 I have 1.16 extrinsic.

 

Please feel free to chime in if you see any flaws in my calculations.

 

Thanks to Chris and Max for all your posts!  :)

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Ok I'm jumping in.

 

GLD was @ 123.95 and I opened the following:

 

Bought Sep 30 125 put @ 5.50

Sold  Jul 20 125 put @ 2.21

 

So I have 11 weeks till the LONG expires, and have a goal of .79/week and break-even is at .51.  For Week 1 I have 1.16 extrinsic.

 

Please feel free to chime in if you see any flaws in my calculations.

 

Thanks to Chris and Max for all your posts!  :)

Well I do need to know if you're in a ratio trade or just a 1:1, but your extrinsic calculation is correct

Edited by cwelsh

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Why would you close at a loss?  This week has been GREAT.  Remember, it's a payoff over time.  Going into yesterday, I needed 0.88 per week to meet my PROFIT goal.

 

So today I:

 

With GLD @ 123.98

 

Bought to Close the Jul 20 122 Put @ 0.92

Sold to Open the Jul 26 125 Put @ 2.74

 

Net credit of: 1.82

Extrinsic value for next two weeks: $1.72

 

I also was NOT in a ratio trade, and now I'm in a 80% ratio

 

E.g. If before I had 5 contracts short and 5 long, now I am 4 short and 5 long (though I have not closed out my extra 1 contract of the Jul 20 122 Put,I'm going to watch that for a while -- it might even expire worthless, if the market goes the other way, I'll close it out).

 

After this trade, my needed per week is $0.75.

 

In other words, I'm WELL ahead of my profit target.

 

Remember this was never a one week trade -- this is an over time trade, and yes, while there is a paper loss on the long position, the trade itself is doing great still.  As long as we keep collecting our $0.75 extrinsic value per week, in the end, we'll end up averaging a 5% per week profit (I'm in the September expiration).

 

Never forget the design and weekly goals of a trade -- yes we have a paper loss right now, but so what, we are better off today on THIS TRADE then when it opened.

Hi Chris, 

 

Thanks for your explanation. I made two critical mistakes on my trade, 

 

1) I opened an ATM calendar spread with a weekly option expiring this week. So the premium I gained from the put wasn't as much as you guys who had two weeks out. I was greedy and wanted to collect more premium week-by-week. 

 

2) I selected the ATM strike instead of DITM for my long put and my long put expiring in August monthly instead of the September monthly. At the time, I didn't want to pay more for a far-out month put and was afraid that the current IV on GLD would decline and impact the long. So I have now less weeks to collect the extrinsic value. 

 

I'm still keeping my long, and have closed my short and opened a new short that keeps all of my GLD delta-neutral. See where this trade goes, anyways, lesson learned,

 

Best,

PC 

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Well I do need to know if you're in a ratio trade or just a 1:1, but your extrinsic calculation is correct

 

Ok I'm jumping in.

 

GLD was @ 123.95 and I opened the following:

 

Bought Sep 30 125 put @ 5.50

Sold  Jul 20 125 put @ 2.21

 

So I have 11 weeks till the LONG expires, and have a goal of .79/week and break-even is at .51.  For Week 1 I have 1.16 extrinsic.

 

Please feel free to chime in if you see any flaws in my calculations.

 

Thanks to Chris and Max for all your posts!  :)

Ok, if you're 1:1, with 11 weeks left, you're cost, as of right now is $5.50, so before commissions, you're BE per week is .10.  (5.50/11)

 

11 weeks of trading, 5% per week, on $5.50 cost is $3.025, so a total of $8.525.  With 11 weeks left, that's .775/week (so .78).

 

I assume your numbers include your commission structure, so they're probably right.

 

I normally trade the short options TWO weeks out though -- as to eliminate some of the loss if the market goes down (unless the longs are already DITM, then go to week to week).  If you do that too, be sure you get at LEAST 2x the extrinsic  you need (since you're going two weeks out).

 

If you want to really quibble you actually need slightly more than 2x per week, but I stick with 2x.

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Guest giorgio

gld was 124.32

 

buy close july19 put 124 @ 1.50

sell july26 put 126 @ 3.12 

 

extrinsic = 1.44

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Guest Hal

Chris, Max, and others –

 

Any of you planning on rolling today like Giorgio did? What would be the pros and cons?

 

I'm still in the July 19 124. GLD at 123.50.

 

Thx.

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Chris, Max, and others –

 

Any of you planning on rolling today like Giorgio did? What would be the pros and cons?

 

I'm still in the July 19 124. GLD at 123.50.

 

Thx.

 

I rolled yesterday, I would probably go around 125 today.... based on your extrinsic need. 

Chris did roll yesterday as well. See post 108 above. 

Edited by Maxtodorov

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Guest Hal

Thanks, Max. I missed Chris's post above. I'll look at the strikes and see where things are at. Thanks again.

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Why would you close at a loss?  This week has been GREAT.  Remember, it's a payoff over time.  Going into yesterday, I needed 0.88 per week to meet my PROFIT goal.

 

So today I:

 

With GLD @ 123.98

 

Bought to Close the Jul 20 122 Put @ 0.92

Sold to Open the Jul 26 125 Put @ 2.74

 

Net credit of: 1.82

Extrinsic value for next two weeks: $1.72

 

I also was NOT in a ratio trade, and now I'm in a 80% ratio

 

E.g. If before I had 5 contracts short and 5 long, now I am 4 short and 5 long (though I have not closed out my extra 1 contract of the Jul 20 122 Put,I'm going to watch that for a while -- it might even expire worthless, if the market goes the other way, I'll close it out).

 

After this trade, my needed per week is $0.75.

 

In other words, I'm WELL ahead of my profit target.

 

Remember this was never a one week trade -- this is an over time trade, and yes, while there is a paper loss on the long position, the trade itself is doing great still.  As long as we keep collecting our $0.75 extrinsic value per week, in the end, we'll end up averaging a 5% per week profit (I'm in the September expiration).

 

Never forget the design and weekly goals of a trade -- yes we have a paper loss right now, but so what, we are better off today on THIS TRADE then when it opened.

 

Chris and Max,

 

Try as a might I still can't see how this trade is doing well if someone can enter the trade now and be even or better than when it was original traded.  I do think it is performing well in the sense that normally diagonals would probably have been hurt very badly with this level of volatility.  This trade has protected you enough over time to keep you about even through these gyrations.

 

When the stock moves much either way the extrinsic calculations are really thrown off.  When GLD goes up for example, yes you are capturing intrinsic but also losing on the long.  Paper or not its still a loss (mark to market).

 

I'm going to sit this one out and see how it goes and perhaps join the party next time when my brain can comprehend this :)  I get the math we do, just not how the trade is doing well week to week.

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You are correct in that you could enter the trade today and be better off than when it started -- but that does not mean the trade is performing poorly.  As long as I keep meeting my target goals each week (or better), I win in the end. Work the math out week by week, it works.

 

Does that mean we couldn't reach a point where we can no longer capture the extrinsic value we need each week?  Of course not -- that could easily happen (or this would be a guaranteed winner, and there are rarely such situations).  But right now, I'm still happy with where it is going -- mark to market aside.

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The way I understand it is that it's basically a calendar spread but ratio'd in such a way that there's a downward bias, more juice on the long put side than the short put side; and you are betting that the realized volatility of GLD will be lower than the implied volatility on the long-side.

 

On the short-side, you don't care as much with this GLD spread because it's structured such that you have more long puts than short puts anyways. 

 

Worst thing that could happen is if GLD goes significantly above your long put GLD strike, which means that you can't sell the juicy premium of the ATM GLD puts anymore. 

 

This has happened to me, I originally started out with August 121 GLD put for my long when GLD was trading at 118; now at 123.75, my long put is underwater, and all I can do is sell underwater short puts such as the July 122 GLD and 122.5 GLD as well with much less premium. However, I made two critical mistakes in my original trade of selecting strikes and expiration (see my previous posts) while others are still writing the ATM puts. I believe a similar scenario will happen to everyone else if GLD goes way above their long strike as well. Feel free to comment if you don't think my reasoning is correct.

 

Assuming GLD stays at its current level, I'd have to make 0.91/spread per week for the next 4 weeks to gain back the premium I paid for my long put before the last week of expiration. A tall order but at this point, I've already learned my mistake and sticking with my trade (that's very distorted from the main original trade) to see how it works out. 

 

Best,

PC

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The way I understand it is that it's basically a calendar spread but ratio'd in such a way that there's a downward bias, more juice on the long put side than the short put side; and you are betting that the realized volatility of GLD will be lower than the implied volatility on the long-side.

 

On the short-side, you don't care as much with this GLD spread because it's structured such that you have more long puts than short puts anyways. 

 

Worst thing that could happen is if GLD goes significantly above your long put GLD strike, which means that you can't sell the juicy premium of the ATM GLD puts anymore. 

 

This has happened to me, I originally started out with August 121 GLD put for my long when GLD was trading at 118; now at 123.75, my long put is underwater, and all I can do is sell underwater short puts such as the July 122 GLD and 122.5 GLD as well with much less premium. However, I made two critical mistakes in my original trade of selecting strikes and expiration (see my previous posts) while others are still writing the ATM puts. I believe a similar scenario will happen to everyone else if GLD goes way above their long strike as well. Feel free to comment if you don't think my reasoning is correct.

 

Assuming GLD stays at its current level, I'd have to make 0.91/spread per week for the next 4 weeks to gain back the premium I paid for my long put before the last week of expiration. A tall order but at this point, I've already learned my mistake and sticking with my trade (that's very distorted from the main original trade) to see how it works out. 

 

Best,

PC

 

Close, except if GLD goes up two things happen (1) I still sell ATM or slightly ITM each week, so I get the premium I need.  However, once GLD gets far enough away from the original long strikes (let's say up to 150), then you're in the situation if GLD drops you lose on your shorts and you DONT gain it back on the longs because they are too far OTM; when that happens I typically (2) roll "up and out" -- in other words I'd sell the september gld long puts and buy the december at  a higher strike (or maybe oct or nov).  With volatility lower, the new long puts are "cheaper" than the original puts, so you actually end up needing less per week.

 

If you get stuck in a persistent, six month long bull market though -- well then you can get yourself in trouble as at some point you can't roll  up and out.

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Close, except if GLD goes up two things happen (1) I still sell ATM or slightly ITM each week, so I get the premium I need.  However, once GLD gets far enough away from the original long strikes (let's say up to 150), then you're in the situation if GLD drops you lose on your shorts and you DONT gain it back on the longs because they are too far OTM; when that happens I typically (2) roll "up and out" -- in other words I'd sell the september gld long puts and buy the december at  a higher strike (or maybe oct or nov).  With volatility lower, the new long puts are "cheaper" than the original puts, so you actually end up needing less per week.

 

If you get stuck in a persistent, six month long bull market though -- well then you can get yourself in trouble as at some point you can't roll  up and out.

 

Chris,    Just to fill out the picture, what exactly prevents this from being a "perpetual" trade where you roll the longs up and out "forever", even in a long bull?   Impractical cumulative "paper" losses on the rolling longs?     Thanks.   

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Impractical paper losses is certainly a possibility, and eventually you run out of places to roll "out" too and only can roll up.  If you cannot roll up and out to a further expiration loss, and can only roll up, then you fall further and further behind.  That's why a persistent bull market is dangerous.

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You guys can run hypothetical scenario's for max. loss and profit using option-price.com; if you punch in say, where you think are the upper and lower limits of GLD price in the next 30 days, with the time value left on your long. To see how much decay your GLD long puts will be. 

 

For volatility, currently GLD option IV is at 21.54 and falling. http://www.ivolatility.com/options.j?ticker=GLD:NYSEArca&R=1&period=12&chart=2&vct=

 

Do you guys have any other tools that you use to graph profit/loss for calendar trades? e.g., ToS analytic (which I haven't really explored) or OptionVue or something similar? 

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Guest giorgio

what is the site where we can find Tos analytics ? Thanks Michael

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Guest Hal

As a general rule, when we get a little spike like today, is this a good time to roll the shorts? Anyone planning on rolling today?

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We always roll on Fridays :).

 

GLD is at $124.90

 

BTC July 26 125 Put @  1.28

STO Aug 2 125 Put @   1.90

 

Net Credit of $0.65

 

Extrinsic value for next week: $1.80

 

On the ratio trade, I now need $0.98 on the ratio trade and/or 0.78 if I'm not on the ratio  (I am still on the ratio, as I think there will be a GLD pullback next week).  If you disagree, then feel free to do a 1:1 calendar instead.

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Guest giorgio

I follow Chris for the possible pullback with also ratio.

 

GLD  at 124.87

 

buy close july26 126 put @ 1.86 

sell aug2 125 put @ 1.94

 

extrinsic: 1.81

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With GLD up 2% today, I was wondering what you guys were thinking about your Long..

 

For me, I believe that it will fall back some tomorrow, and waiting until then on what to do about my 125 9/30(Quarterly) Long...

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Guest giorgio

GLD 128.52

 

BTC Aug2 125 put @0.72

STO Aug2 129 put @ 2.05

 

Extrinsic = 1.57

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Well it just keeps going up, so I just did another roll -- this time a vertical spread:

 

GLD @ 128.79

 

BTC Aug 2 128 Put @1.50

STO Aug 2 129 Put @ 1.95

 

Net credit of 0.45 (so total of 1.44 on the day)

 

Extrinsic now: 1.74

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Hi Guys, 

 

So I sold all my GLD positions for a loss as my original 121 put was significantly under water, 

 

I'm thinking about entering into a new GLD position with less direction bias; thinking about doing a double calendar for Aug 1- Aug 15 128/130. 

 

I know that the bias of the original GLD diagonal was that it was going to drift slowly downward; given the recent rally, do you guys still hold that opinion and looking for a pullback? 

 

My argument is that GLD IV has reached the local min. http://www.ivolatility.com/options.j?ticker=GLD:NYSEArca&R=1&period=12&chart=2&vct= and I want to long vega without any directional bias, 

 

Best,

PC

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I'm thinking about entering into a new GLD position with less direction bias; thinking about doing a double calendar for Aug 1- Aug 15 128/130. 

 

I know that the bias of the original GLD diagonal was that it was going to drift slowly downward; given the recent rally, do you guys still hold that opinion and looking for a pullback? 

 

 

 

I am generally bad at trying to predict things. So, I am just going to ride the trade as is. With volatility of GLD, it could drop $7 tomorrow, or rise another $5. I will simply follow the plan.....

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I wouldn't have eaten that loss, particularly as this trade continues to work with what we are receiving.  Yes, if we had entered today, we could have done so for much cheaper, but it still is chugging along just fine, as long as you can tolerate that paper loss.

 

Let's say you bought a $30K opening position on the long. It should be worth about $15K today, but we've also earned a credit of $10K, and we're averaging what we need to per week.  If GLD keeps going up, we may roll up and out, but not at the current level.

 

Though of course everyone should make their own decisions :)

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Guest Hal

I've been away for a few days, during which time it looks like the SO emails stopped working. I'm still at the Aug 2 125 put. Suggestions? Should I roll to another Aug 2, or at this point start looking at the following week?

 

I don't think this is too mucked up at this point, and I can certainly figure out the extrinsic value I need. Just wondering if you think Aug 2 or the following week is better at this point.

 

Thanks.

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It's not that messed up at all, we will be rolling the Aug 2 puts to the Aug 9 puts tomorrow, I would just participate in that roll. 

 

I assume you received around $1.90 for the $1.25.

 

You COULD roll today, and buy back the 125 for around .63 (where it's trading now), and you'll lock in a $1.27 gain.

 

If I closed my open Aug 2 129 right now  I'd net $1.20, so right now you're actually ahead of those of us who rolled (though if the market goes up, stays basically flat, or IV goes down,  you'll slip behind. 

 

By rolling today you only sacrifice .01 of theta (difference between your current theta and next weeks).  It kind of depends on what you the GLD will do -- if you think it'll stay above 126 or so by tomorrow, I'd wait one more day, otherwise I'd roll.

 

But in answer to your question, no you're still perfectly fine.

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Guest Hal

Thanks, Chris. I actually have been feeling pretty comfortable with this trade, making every week what I need to make. I do believe GLD will remain above 126 by tomorrow, so I'll wait to participate in the roll.

 

Thanks again.

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Just as with the SPY trade, I PROBABLY am going to roll today to prevent accelerated losses on the shorts (as they and the longs are pretty even right now).

 

GLD is currently at 127.37

 

BTC GLD Aug 2 129

STO GLD Aug 9 128

Net Credit .10

 

I have this order entered -- IT HAS NOT FILLED, the current midpoint is debit .12.  I'll evaluate as the day goes on -- everyone needs to make their own decisions.

 

If you think GLD is going to rebound later in the day and/or on Monday or Tuesday, you're better off holding, if it continues to go down, you're better off rolling.

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We're beginning to fall a little behind on this one, and I'm strongly considering rolling up and out -- particularly as in about 7-10 days theta is really going to start accelerating on the long positions.

 

Right now my "break even" price, on the 5:4 ratio is 0.54/week.  That's still easily doable, but the profit target is becoming less and less likely.  Depending on what the price of GLD does over the next 1-3 days, I will probably roll up and out.  As long as GLD is flat, or increases slightly, I will.  A sharp move down will increase the value of those Sept puts, and I would have to re-evaluate. 

 

Right now we can roll the September 125 puts (current price 2.50) to the November 130 puts (current price 6.30) for a net debit of $3.80.  HOWEVER, that gives us 14 more weeks to pay for it and/or earn money -- that's only 0.27/week.  In other words, it gets CHEAPER to pay things off and EASIER to make a profit. 

 

Downside?  You have to commit more capital and lock yourself into the trade for longer -- which is why I'm going to wait until at least tomorrow to make the call -- I encourage all members to evaluate it on there own. If you have questions, just ask!

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Guest giorgio

also rolled to aug9 129 put @2.12 

 

Extrinsic= 1.54

 

GLD @ 128.42

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Guest Hal

Chris –

 

I suppose the performance of GLD this week has you leaning toward staying in the trade? What's yr thinking?

 

You too Max, or anyone else participating.

 

Thx.

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