http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/ Wed, 22 May 2013 18:46:02 +0000 86400 Seeking Alpha articles http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/lessons-from-apple-crash-r39 Warning signs

When the stock has risen to $705, you could find plenty of warning signs. For example:

• Apple's value was more than 4% of the U.S. GDP.
• Options Implied Volatility jumped from 19% to 41% in a matter of few weeks with no significant news.
• You could make almost 50% in one week trading a delta neutral butterfly spread. Those returns are possible only with highly speculative stocks.
• Pretty much everyone was bullish on Apple. If everyone is bullish and already has purchased the stock, who is left to support further stock increase?
• The market was pricing the good news only and ignoring all the bad news.
• According to Forbes, some of Apple's insiders dump the stock.
• The positive sentiment reached extreme levels.

The Forbes article is especially interesting. The columnist argues that:

"Apple cultists may want to take notice that the top brass of Apple clearly does not believe that Apple stock going to $1000 is a sure thing. Blind faith is the hallmark of cultists. "

It also quotes an email from an Apple's cultist:

"You are wasting your time here……. Other analysts on AAPL are all silly? You are smarter? A nuclear physicist, so what? Apple will be above $1000 soon, no matter what you said……. You took profit at $360 and $525, shame on you."

Please note the definitiveness of Apple going to $1000 in the above excerpt.

Some people argued that the stock will get more support from dividend funds that were restricted to own it till now. I personally doubted it then and I doubt it now. The stock often moves up and down more than the entire year's dividend in just a few minutes. Most of the dividend funds don't want to own that kind of volatility.

History lessons

Unfortunately, in most cases of parabolic moves, those who join the party late buy the shares of those informed traders and investors who have already made significant gains and are ready to move to the next target. When they decide to sell part of their remaining portfolio, then the late comers, who are usually weak hands, panic and try to sell at break-even or just below that.

The recent crash also shows the dangers of over-concentrated portfolio. Many people went "all in" with Apple thinking that the stock will just continue going up $100 month after month. Obviously they were proven wrong. No stock deserves more than 20-30% of your portfolio maximum, and AAPL is no different.

Market history is filled with moves that defy logic as the charts "go parabolic." Those moves usually have 3 things in common:

• They go further than one would expect.
• They never last.
• They usually end really, really badly.

What now?

AAPL price action simply proves that there is no such thing "cannot go any lower". Is the stock cheap? Yes, some would say ridiculously cheap. But it was cheap at $500 too. Would I buy it now? The answer is no. I learned the hard way not to invest in stocks without some kind of hedge, no matter how cheap they seem. Personally, I'm implying non-directional options strategies that are designed to make money in every market. Since joining Seeking Alpha four months ago, I shared quite a few Apple trades with my readers. Here are some of them:

• The Bull Credit spread from December 13, 2011 produced a 42% gain in 6 weeks.
• The Iron Condor from January 10, 2012 produced a 28% gain in 2 weeks.
• The Long Butterfly from March 19, 2012 produced a 35% gain in three days.

Since Seeking Alpha discontinued the Options section, I cannot write options articles anymore. However, I still share the trades with my members - my last AAPL trade was a calendar spread just a month ago which made 25% in two weeks (the stock was down 5% during that time).]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 02:17:01 +0000 e00da03b685a0dd18fb6a08af0923de0 http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/more-options-for-options-traders-r31 Read the full article]]> Sun, 09 Dec 2012 00:23:15 +0000 1afa34a7f984eeabdbb0a7d494132ee5 http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/thank-you-google-and-see-you-next-cycle-r28 Read the full article]]> Mon, 23 Jul 2012 18:33:01 +0000 76dc611d6ebaafc66cc0879c71b5db5c http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/google-earnings-trade-risk-vs-reward-r27 Read the full article.]]> Wed, 04 Jul 2012 17:52:54 +0000 ec5decca5ed3d6b8079e2e7e7bacc9f2 http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/lessons-from-earnings-plays-r26 Read the full article]]> Mon, 07 May 2012 15:30:50 +0000 069059b7ef840f0c74a814ec9237b6ec http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/what-a-high-beta-means-for-apple-r23 Read full article]]> Wed, 18 Apr 2012 02:04:09 +0000 202cb962ac59075b964b07152d234b70 http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/6-ways-to-play-apples-earnings-r22 Read full article]]> Tue, 17 Apr 2012 14:19:05 +0000 a0a080f42e6f13b3a2df133f073095dd http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/lessons-from-googles-earnings-options-plays-r21 Read full article]]> Sun, 15 Apr 2012 23:22:49 +0000 4c56ff4ce4aaf9573aa5dff913df997a http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/trading-apples-pre-earnings-run-r20 Read full article]]> Mon, 09 Apr 2012 14:42:06 +0000 da4fb5c6e93e74d3df8527599fa62642 http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/exploiting-earnings-associated-rising-volatility-r19 Read the full article]]> Sun, 08 Apr 2012 17:37:39 +0000 07e1cd7dca89a1678042477183b7ac3f http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/myths-and-misconceptions-of-options-trading-r18 Read the full article]]> Sun, 08 Apr 2012 17:35:03 +0000 5ef059938ba799aaa845e1c2e8a762bd http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/why-i-wouldnt-trade-apple-right-now-r17 Read the full article]]> Sun, 08 Apr 2012 17:32:16 +0000 eb160de1de89d9058fcb0b968dbbbd68 http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/apple-dissecting-the-butterfly-trade-r14 Read the full article]]> Sun, 08 Apr 2012 02:50:07 +0000 5fd0b37cd7dbbb00f97ba6ce92bf5add http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/has-apple-become-a-speculative-stock-r13 Read the full article]]> Sun, 08 Apr 2012 02:44:33 +0000 73278a4a86960eeb576a8fd4c9ec6997 http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/5-ways-to-play-google-earnings-r12 Read the full article]]> Sun, 08 Apr 2012 02:41:16 +0000 7f6ffaa6bb0b408017b62254211691b5 http://steadyoptions.com/articles/_/articles/how-to-be-cautiously-bullish-on-apple-r11 Read the Full Article]]> Sat, 07 Apr 2012 23:12:49 +0000 698d51a19d8a121ce581499d7b701668